Predicting and analyzing changes in arid and semi-arid regions are critical for informing decision-makers in designing effective sand movement and encroachment mitigation strategies. This study aims to forecast future changes in sand cover and dune dynamics in Al-Washm and Al-Mahmal, Saudi Arabia. The study employed the Markov model to analyze temporal and spatial changes in sand cover, supplemented by digital image processing techniques applied to SPOT-5 satellite imagery (2004-2012). Sand cover areas were mapped using remote sensing classification and Geographic Information System (GIS). The CA-Markov model (cellular automata) was utilized to predict the sand cover from 2012 to 2030, following the application of the Markov model. The study findings indicate that the area affected by sand drifts in Shaqra province is projected to expand by 9.8 km2, while Tharmada province is expected to experience a 2.4 km2 increase. The results demonstrated an expected decrease in the Thadq province covered by sand drifts by approximately 6.9 km2. Transition probability analysis revealed that sand movement from dune to drift areas in Shaqra province was 0.87% (2004-2006) and 0.90% (2006-2012). Tharmada province exhibited lower probabilities (0.25% and 0.38% for the same periods), while Thadq province showed variable trends, with probabilities of 0.34% (2004-2006) and 0.98% (2006-2012). This study provides critical insights into future the dune cover moving and changing aiding the development of targeted strategies to address sand encroachment. The findings also support land-use planners in identifying high-risk areas for sand accumulation and contribute to environmental protection by enhancing understanding of ecosystem dynamics in arid regions.