A Machine Learning Model and Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing for Sustainable Soil Management in Egypt's Western Nile Delta

Population growth and human actions are worsening the exhaustion of finite land and water resources, prompting worries about sustainability. This study examines the changing landscape dynamics of El-Beheira province in the West Nile Delta region of Egypt. The study aims to quantitatively identify the type, extent, and spatial trends of the major changes from the spatio-temporal analysis of the time series of different satellite images spanning the last four decades, and study the impact of those spatial dynamics on sustainable agricultural management. Remote sensing data and machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) were used to examine the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) from 1984 to 2021. The analysis involves multi-temporal satellite images from Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites, as well as time series of spectral indices such as NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI. The classification results showed that the RF classifier outperformed the other ones and effectively distinguished between different LULC categories throughout the research area. The results show significant changes in terrain LULC categories, with increases in vegetation and urban areas and decreases in barren terrain. Change detection analysis reveals the temporal dynamics of LULC, emphasizing the effects of agricultural activities and urban growth. During the study period, the percentage of barren land decreased from 61.2% in 1984 to 37.8% in 2021, while vegetated areas increased from 35.8 to 56.4%. Urban areas are expanding rapidly due to population growth and infrastructure development, while aquatic ecosystems remain relatively stable. Most of the landscape remains unchanged over time, with transitions between barren land and vegetated areas accounting for a significant portion of the alterations. It is critical to highlight that urban expansion has encroached on the northern part of the historical soils of the Nile Delta, which are fertile and suitable for growing strategic crops such as rice and cotton. The study indicates that this area is at risk of soil salinization and ecological degradation. These findings can guide targeted interventions to mitigate soil degradation risks. In contrast, agricultural activities have expanded on barren lands in the desert region, which have relatively low levels of productivity. Despite the region's notable agricultural development, a lack of rice and cotton varieties adapted to clay soils contributes to increased salinization and climate change impacts. The results provide valuable insights into changing land use patterns in El-Beheira, which are essential for informed decision-making and the development of sustainable land management strategies to preserve resources and improve environmental sustainability.