Landform significantly influences terrestrial carbon stock changes in arid zones. Understanding the interconnected relationship between landforms and carbon stock fluctuations aids in customizing preservation strategies. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), Patch Generation Future Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geomorphological Zoning Theory (GZ), a framework (PLUS-InVEST-GZ) was proposed to estimate past and future carbon stock variations across geomorphological zones. Key findings include: (1) Approximately one-third of the carbon stock, about 3.8 x 109 tons is located in mountainous areas, showing a fluctuating upward trend due to forest protection measures. This underscores the importance of mountainous regions as vital carbon sinks. (2) Predictions indicate significant declines of 3.8 x 106 tons in the Tarim Basin under economic development scenarios, while environmental protection scenarios lead to an increase of approximately 2.4 x 106 tons in carbon storage in the Tianshan region. In contrast, all other scenarios result in decreases in carbon storage in the Tianshan region, ranging from 0.2 x 106 to 0.7 x 106 tons. These results emphasize that geomorphic characteristics strongly influence carbon storage dynamics. Conservation efforts focused on mountainous areas are more cost-effective than those targeting plains, suggesting the need for tailored strategies to balance carbon storage, water resource sustainability, and ecological resilience.