Simulation of gully evolution of Linzhou ancient city on the loess plateau in the past two millennia based on CA model

The Loess Plateau is a prominent locus of soil erosion in China, drawing considerable scrutiny owing to its pervasive gully erosion. Insufficient historical data have constrained the study of past dynamic changes in gully erosion. In this study, we employed a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate and analyze the progression of gully erosion near Linzhou Ancient City on the Loess Plateau, spanning two millennia. The results of the study show that, (1) the erosion rate of Linzhou Ancient City has been in the range of 7-27 mm/a over the past two millennia, with a general upward trend in gully erosion. (2) Factors such as climate, population, land use, and vegetation jointly affect the rate of gully erosion. (3) Accelerated gully erosion has contributed to the abandonment of Linzhou Ancient City. This study provides an essential reference for understanding the evolutionary processes of landforms on the Loess Plateau, revealing the combined influence of natural changes and human activities on gully development. Therefore, it is important to develop and implement soil and water conservation measures on the Loess Plateau.