干旱区生态安全与可持续发展服务平台

Pastoralists’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in Inner Mongolia: A multivariate probit analysis

Qi Wang ， Xiaolin Jin ， Huamin Liu ， Xiaowen Yu ， Cunzhu Liang ， Lixin Wang

2026-02-01 null null 232(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Climate change poses severe challenges to pastoral livelihoods in arid regions. Using a multivariate probit model on 261 household surveys and meteorological data (1981–2014) from Inner Mongolia, China, this study examines pastoralists' climate perceptions, adaptation strategies, and barriers. Pastoralists accurately perceived rising temperatures but were sensitive to short-term rainfall variability. The primary adaptation strategies were purchasing fodder, reducing livestock, and renting pasture. Key determinants included production capacity, risk-buffering capacity (e.g., credit, tenure), and social networks. Major barriers were financial constraints (47 %), labor shortages (46 %), and limited credit access (32 %). The model revealed significant correlations between strategies, showing complements (e.g., fodder purchase and pasture rental) and trade-offs. We recommend targeted interventions like technical training, climate information, and credit schemes to enhance adaptive capacity. This study provides the first MVP analysis of simultaneous adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia's pastoral systems, offering insights into simultaneous strategy use and barrier diagnostics in arid grassland ecosystems.

关键词

Pastoral livelihoods Climate variability Multivariate probit model Grassland degradation Adaptive capacity

Pastoralists’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in Inner Mongolia: A multivariate probit analysis

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