NDVI-based vegetation monitoring and forecasting in Madinah (2014-2050) under the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI); using Google earth engine

Shahab, Muhammad , Alshehri, Fahad , Shakoor, Huma

2026-06-01 URBAN CLIMATE 2026   67(卷), null(期), (null页)

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The significance of this study lies in its demonstration that data-driven ecological monitoring can transform hyper-arid landscapes into measurable targets for restoration, providing a scientifically robust framework for combating desertification, enhancing climate resilience. While the analysis is regionally focused on the hyper-arid environment of Madinah, the integration of satellitederived vegetation indices and cloud-based geospatial processing offers a scalable methodology applicable to similar dryland systems, thereby supporting evidence-based environmental management and sustainable policy development across arid and semi-arid regions. The study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of vegetation dynamics in the hyper-arid region of Madinah, Saudi Arabia, utilizing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 imagery and processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE). The study employs a spectral index-based model NDVI derived from multispectral Landsat 8 imagery, utilizing a deterministic radiometric transformation and further a statistical analysis to predict the vegetation cover in 2050. Aligned with the objectives of the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI), the research evaluates the ecological outcomes of ongoing afforestation, water management innovation, and policy-driven land restoration efforts. Between 2014 and 2024, vegetative cover expanded from 94.71 km2 to 140.93 km2, representing a 48.77% increase. Forecasting models based on this trajectory project a significant expansion to approximately 722 km2 by 2050-an overall increase of 662% from the 2014 baseline. This transformation underscores the latent ecological responsiveness of desert biomes when supported by data-driven strategies and sustained environmental interventions. Integration of spatial analysis tools such as ArcMap GIS enabled the visualization and quantification of land cover changes, revealing critical insights into the patterns, processes, and drivers of greening in arid landscapes. The findings position Madinah as a scalable model for climate-resilient ecological restoration and highlight the strategic role of interdisciplinary collaboration and remote sensing in advancing sustainable development in desert environments.