Feasibility assessment and prioritization of large-scale floating solar farms on reservoirs in semi-arid regions as an emerging clean energy solution

The growing energy demand in developing countries necessitates sustainable electricity generation solutions that address both climate mitigation and water security challenges. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) on reservoir surfaces offer a dual-benefit approach by generating clean energy while reducing water evaporation-critical in water-stressed semi-arid regions. This study presents a comprehensive feasibility assessment of large-scale FPV deployment across dam reservoirs in Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, using an integrated remote sensing, GIS, and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework. Based on 20-year (2001-2020) Landsat 5/8 NDWI time-series analysis, 12 dams were selected from 69 candidates for detailed evaluation. Fifteen technical, climatic, and socioeconomic criteria-including solar irradiance, sunshine duration, installable FPV area, temperature, evaporation, precipitation, cloudiness, dust/hail frequency, wind speed, proximity to power grids/roads/settlements, land use, and population density-were integrated using the Best-Worst Method (BWM) for criteria weighting (consistency ratio = 0.061) and the Evaluation based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) for site prioritization. Expert judgments from 14 professionals yielded robust weights validated through Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis (coefficient of variation <12%, rank preservation probability >92% under +/- 20% perturbations). Results identified Dosti Dam as the top-ranked site (EDAS score = 0.997), followed by Kardeh, Chahchahe, and Toroq. The cumulative installed capacity across all 12 sites totals 2668.38 +/- 266.84 MWp, with an estimated annual energy generation of 3948.59 +/- 394.86 GWh-sufficient to meet approximately 15% of the province's current electricity demand. Economic analysis revealed a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of 0.084/kWh (range: 0.076-0.092), approaching grid parity and expected to achieve full competitiveness within 2-3 years under current feed-in tariff escalation trends. The findings demonstrate that FPV on reservoirs represents a technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally beneficial strategy for enhancing energy security and water resilience in semi-arid developing regions.