Multifractal Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in a Semi-Arid Region of Central Mexico: Guanajuato, 1981-2016
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This study characterizes the multifractal structure of monthly precipitation in the semi-arid state of Guanajuato, Mexico, using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis with quadratic detrending (MFDFA-2). We analyze 65 quality-controlled meteorological stations covering the period 1981-2016. All series exhibit multifractality, with generalized Hurst exponents h(2)=0.568 +/- 0.065 indicating predominantly persistent dynamics and long-term positive autocorrelation (64.6% of stations). The multifractal spectrum width (Delta alpha) ranges from 0.15 to 0.72 (mean = 0.2423), revealing substantial spatial variability in scaling complexity. K-means clustering based on multifractal features identifies the following four hydroclimatic groups: one random cluster (29.2% of stations) and three persistence-dominated clusters (70.8%), with coherent spatial organization. These findings provide new insights into the temporal scaling properties of precipitation in semi-arid regions and have important implications for water resource management and regionalized drought-risk assessment.
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