The changes in soil temperature and moisture due to freezing and thawing can modify the carbon and nitrogen release rates from soils in ecological buffer zones, affecting the carbon-nitrogen balance of lake wetlands in arid regions. This study selected the ecological buffer zone of saltwater lakes in arid areas as the research subject. Through in - situ monitoring and simulation via the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) model, the regulatory mechanisms of soil hydrothermal dynamics on CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions were revealed. The results showed that: (1) The buffer zone overall acted as a CO2 emission source (98,984.90 mg & centerdot;m(-)& sup2;& centerdot;h(-)& sup1;) and a CH4 absorption sink (- 6.36 mg & centerdot;m(-)& sup2;& centerdot;h(-)& sup1;), where soils in aquatic habitats contributed 80.48% of CO2 emissions, and CH4 oxidation predominantly occurred in shallow soils (0-20 cm). (2) N2O emissions (3.02 mg & centerdot;m(- 2)& centerdot;h(- 1)) decreased along the habitat gradient and shifted to uptake in sandy habitats. (3) The GRNN model identified key thresholds: when soil moisture content ranges from 1 to 8.4%, CO2 emission peaks. CH4 emission peaks at soil temperatures of 26-27.2 degrees C and soil moisture content of 4.2-16.6%. N2O emission reaches its maximum at 15.5-24.4 degrees C and with moisture content below 9%. These findings highlight the role of soil hydrothermal changes in wetland carbon-nitrogen cycling, as well as the importance of soil moisture in regulating carbon emissions under a warmer, drier climate.