Tan, Feng , Liu, Run , Wu, Min , Chen, Jing , Ye, Zhenying
2026-06-15 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 2026 131(卷), 12(期), (null页)
Compound drought and heatwave events pose severe threats to society and ecosystems as global temperature rises. However, daily scale assessments of their evolution and driving processes across different climate zones remain limited. Using multi-source data for 1960-2024, this study examines the spatial and temporal changes, dominant drivers, and hazard evolution of compound drought-heatwave events across China's arid and humid regions. The results show clear intensification, with stronger increases in event frequency, duration, and cumulative heat in arid and semi-arid regions than in humid regions. These differences arise from nonlinear land-atmosphere feedback that amplifies heat under persistent soil moisture deficits. Driver analysis indicates that heatwave events are the dominant factor triggering compound drought-heatwave event occurrences in most regions, with their contribution exceeding 50% in arid zones, whereas drought effects play a more significant role in humid regions than in arid zones. An abrupt acceleration in both the frequency and intensity of compound drought-heatwave events emerged around 1992, coinciding with rapid warming, shifts in large-scale circulation, and intensified human influences. Hazard assessment based on a bivariate probability model shows that the return period of extreme drought-heatwave events has shortened from 44 years in 1960-1990 to 14.6 years in 1991-2024, and recent years include events surpassing historical records. These findings reveal distinct formation mechanisms across China's dry-wet gradient and highlight the increasing likelihood of extreme compound events, providing a scientific basis for developing region-specific adaptation strategies.