Photothermal drivers and climate-sensitivity windows of Lanzhou lily (Lilium davidii var. unicolor) phenology across three decades of warming in Northwest China

Plant phenology provides an integrative biometeorological indicator of how agroecosystems respond to climate variability and long-term change. The Lanzhou lily (Lilium davidii var. unicolor), a key edible-medicinal bulb crop in Northwest China, is cultivated in a temperate semi-arid region that has experienced pronounced warming and a concurrent decline in sunshine duration over recent decades. Using continuous field phenological observations (1995-2024) and daily meteorological records, we quantified long-term trends in four phenological metrics (emergence, full bloom, shoot senescence, and growing season length) and identified phase-specific climatic sensitivity windows via a sliding-window correlation approach. We then parameterized multiple regression models using the optimal windows to quantify the relative roles of temperature, sunshine duration, and precipitation. Over the 30-year period, emergence, full bloom, and shoot senescence advanced significantly (1.06, 1.23, and 1.69 days per decade, respectively), while growing season length shortened (0.67 days per decade). Temperature exerted a consistent advancing effect across all phases, whereas sunshine duration acted in the opposite direction by delaying full bloom and senescence. Precipitation contributed a minor, late-season influence on growing season length. The identified response windows (from early spring to late summer) provide a practical basis for biometeorological monitoring and phenology forecasting of this perennial bulb crop under ongoing climate change.