Delgarm, Razieh Taraghi ， Ahmadi, Mehdi ， Mousavi, S. Jamshid
2026-02-04 ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2026 null(卷), null(期), (null页)
Groundwater over-extraction, compounded by climate variability, poses significant challenges to water security and agricultural sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the sustainability of the Miandoab Plain aquifer in the Urmia Lake Basin, Iran, using MODFLOW-NWT numerical modeling, assessing the effects of reducing agricultural well withdrawals by 10%, 20%, and 30%. The results indicate that a 30% reduction significantly enhances aquifer sustainability, increases resilience by 147%, reduces vulnerability by 79%, and improves reliability by 79%. Additionally, the groundwater decay rate (GDR) extends from 40 to 222 years, and depletion slows to 0.12 m/year. The Groundwater Sustainability Index (GSI) rises from 0.36 to 0.71, suggesting a transition toward sustainable conditions. Complementary indices such as Groundwater Footprint (GF), Groundwater Development (GD), and Aquifer Sustainability (AS) support the positive impact of reduced withdrawals. Overall, the study underscores the importance of aligning extraction rates with natural recharge to mitigate long-term aquifer depletion and provides a scalable approach for groundwater management in water-scarce regions.