2026-04-22 ARID LAND RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT 2026 null(卷), null(期), (null页)
The Weibei Upland, a major apple-producing region in China, is transitioning toward sustainable management and high-density orchards. To support sustainable apple production, it was essential to understand the relative importance of the factors associated with orchard performance. We evaluated 16 indicators of tree growth, leaf nutrients, and fruit quality, along with yield (17 parameters in total) across 27 orchards in Chinese Weibei Upland, The effects of geographical location, management type (organic, green, and conventional), and rootstock type (dwarfing vs. standard) were assessed using fixed-effects ANOVA restricted to main effects, together with partial correlation and Random Forest analyses. Geographical location showed the strongest association with the measured variables. Random Forest modeling was consistent with this pattern, accurately classifying orchard locations (14.81% OOB error) but failing to distinguish management types (66.67% OOB error). ANOVA indicated that geographical factors-expressed through altitude, climate, and soil properties-significantly influenced 11 of the 17 parameters. In contrast, management types had minimal effects, with a significant difference only in hundred-leaf weight, possibly related to widespread nutrient input saturation, which may have obscured theoretical agronomic distinctions. Rootstock type had no significant direct effect on any measured physiological, quality, or yield trait. These findings suggest that in this semi-arid region, orchard performance is more strongly associated with geographical context than with management certification or rootstock type. The findings support geographically informed precision management and suggest that reducing excessive fertilizer inputs, especially in conventional orchards, may improve sustainability while maintaining yield.