Ecological stability evaluation of different grassland types in Xinjiang under climate change conditions

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  • Ecosystem stability under drought is critical for sustaining grasslands ecosystems in arid regions. This study integrated multiple environmental datasets and remote sensing products to evaluate the drought-induced ecosystem stability of three grassland types (meadow, steppe, and desert grassland) in Xinjiang, China, during the period 2000-2023. Results showed that all grassland types experienced a significant aridification trend: the mean standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) declined from -0.15 to -1.51 for meadows, from -0.11 to -1.32 for steppes, and from -0.24 to -1.30 for desert grasslands. Eastern Xinjiang experienced the most severe drying trend, with mean SPEI decreasing from -0.27 to -1.82. The drought-affected area expanded substantially across the region, especially in desert grasslands (increasing from 7.45% to 81.94%), and the extreme drought event during 2007-2008 affected over 90% of grasslands in northern Xinjiang. Spatial variability was evident in all aspects of ecosystem stability, namely resistance, resilience, and temporal stability. Resistance was highest in Eastern Xinjiang (Omega = 35 for meadows) and lowest in southern Xinjiang. Resilience was greatest in northern Xinjiang. The temporal stability followed the pattern Eastern > Southern > Northern Xinjiang, with desert grasslands in Eastern Xinjiang exhibiting the highest temporal stability. Downward shortwave solar radiation (SSRD) dominated resistance and temporal stability in most regions (%IncMSE up to 154.08%), temperature was most important in eastern Xinjiang for resistance (%IncMSE = 42.16%) and in northern Xinjiang for temporal stability (%IncMSE = 151.82%), and grazing intensity was the strongest predictor of resilience in eastern Xinjiang (%IncMSE = 38.13%).