Mountain glaciers play a critical role in freshwater supply and hydrological regulation. Climate warming is projected to accelerate glacier melting in High Mountain Asia, threatening water resource sustainability, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions. This study employs the integrated ice-dynamic Open Global Glacier Model to investigate glacier responses to past and future climate change. The annual mass balance series of 11,625 glaciers from 1990 to 2019 is reconstructed, revealing their spatiotemporal variability in alpine regions. Additionally, the long-term dynamics of glacier mass, area, and volume are assessed through 2100 under different climate scenarios, focusing on glacier runoff changes and the differences in the timing of peak runoff. Finally, the unit area service pricing method is applied to establish an index for quantifying the ecological value loss resulting from glacier retreat. The results show that climate warming will lead to substantial and irreversible mass loss. This process is characterized by initial thinning followed by retreat, resulting in an overall negative mass balance. By the end of the 21st century, glacier area and volume will decrease by more than 40% in most basins, with peak runoff expected around 2050 under low-emission scenarios. In contrast, delayed peaks are generally associated with high-emission scenarios and regions with substantial glacier reserves. Glacier service values are predicted to decline significantly or be entirely lost, with this trend intensifying from southwest to northeast in the Tarim River Basin. This study provides new insights into glacier dynamical and hydrological responses under climate warming, contributing to regional socio-ecological sustainability and optimized water resource management.