Synergistic utilization of GRACE/GRACE-FO observations to monitor groundwater storage dynamics in Gujarat, India

Groundwater reserves are pivotal for irrigation, maintaining ecological balance, and water supply. Thus, regular monitoring and long-term assessment of these reserves are essential for the effective management of water resources. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite data are widely used to estimate global groundwater storage changes in large aquifers; however, validation with in situ groundwater observations is limited. In this study, we utilize terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE/GRACE-FO and soil moisture estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), to analyze groundwater changes in Gujarat from 2003 to 2023 and in situ well observations recorded by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) to validate the results. We employ nonparametric statistical methods like Modified Mann-Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis to assess long-term trends in groundwater storage changes at a 95% confidence interval. JPL TWSA shows good agreement with a gap-filled TWSA dataset. The coefficient of determination (R2) between GRACE/GRACE-FO and well-based groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) values is 0.3, 0.63, 0.57, 0.49, 0.18 and 0.6 for Saurashtra, North Gujarat, Central Gujarat, South Gujarat, Kachchh, and the entire Gujarat state, respectively. These results demonstrated that the GRACE satellite effectively captures groundwater dynamics in semi-arid regions except Kachchh. Additionally, the decadal groundwater fluctuation analysis indicates that major parts of Gujarat have experienced a rise in groundwater level. This study is beneficial for policy formulation and modification of cropping patterns in response to rising groundwater levels and overall water resource management in Gujarat.