Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climate Variability and Seasonal Drought in Naâma Province (Algeria) from 1951 to 2022

Oubadi, Miloud

2026-06-06 PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 2026   null(卷), null(期), (null页)

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The arid province of Na & acirc;ma in southwestern Algeria is highly vulnerable to climate variability, making its agropastoral systems particularly sensitive to recurring droughts. This study investigates long-term spatio-temporal trends in seasonal drought conditions from 1951 to 2022, using monthly precipitation data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS 4.07 dataset. This dataset was selected due to its high spatial resolution (0.5 degrees) and its validation in arid regions, ensuring its suitability for areas with sparse meteorological stations. Seasonal drought conditions were assessed using the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), which captures intra-annual fluctuations important for vegetation and livestock cycles. The analysis applied the Mann-Kendall test to detect trends, and Sen's slope estimator to quantify the magnitude of these trends. The results show significant increasing drought trends in winter (p < 0.05, Sen's slope = -0.014--0.020), spring (Sen's slope = -0.004 to -0.013), and summer (Sen's slope = -0.07--0.017), while autumn remains stable (Sen's slope = 0.004-0.007). Drought frequency increased by 12-15% in the southern regions, reflecting a pronounced south-north gradient in drought severity. Precipitation variability, assessed through the Coefficient of Variation (CV), revealed high interannual instability, particularly in spring (CV > 90%) and summer (CV > 120%), indicating significant risk to agropastoral systems. Additionally, drought duration analysis showed persistent multi-seasonal drought events, especially from the 1980s onwards, while drought clustering revealed periods of consecutive dry seasons. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted local adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of agropastoral livelihoods under the growing climatic instability.