2026-05-01 ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 2026 200(卷), null(期), (null页)
This study investigated the Ebinur Lake Basin in arid inland China, focusing on the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes to elucidate water recharge mechanisms and transformation processes. A twoendmember mixing model was used to quantify the respective contributions of precipitation and snowmelt, while the SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) framework was employed to identify key environmental drivers. The results indicate that snowmelt account for an average of 58% of total surface and groundwater recharge, with the remaining 42% originating from precipitation. A progressive monthly decline in surface-groundwater exchange rates was observed, reflecting seasonal hydrological variations. Climate variability remains the primary control on basin-scale isotope dynamics, whereas LUCC and irrigation-related disturbance can impose strong subbasin modulation. These findings provide a scientific foundation for sustainable water resource management in arid regions.