Climate-adaptive and low-carbon multi-objective water resources optimization in arid oasis cities
2026-06-19 ISCIENCE 2026 29(卷), 6(期), (null页)
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To address the intensifying water supply-demand imbalance in arid regions under climate change and low-carbon development, this study uses Shihezi City, Xinjiang, as a case study. CMIP6 climate data were used to drive an LSTM model for basin-scale runoff projection, and a multi-objective water resources optimization framework was developed by integrating NSGA-III with CRITIC-TOPSIS, considering water shortage, economic benefits, pollutant emissions, and water-use carbon emissions. Results show that future runoff in the Manas River Basin generally declines, with the most pronounced reduction in September; by 2030, water scarcity in Shihezi City remains substantial. The optimal scheme under SSP1-2.6 performs well in water conservation and carbon reduction; SSP2-4.5 balances economic development and environmental protection, whereas SSP5-8.5 delivers higher economic benefits but greater environmental pressure. The results provide support for efficient water resources allocation and low-carbon utilization in arid oasis cities.
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