Lei, Yuxin , Jiang, Xiaohui , Fan, Sinuo , Nie, Tong , He, Mengzhi
2026-06-01 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION 2026 150(卷), null(期), (null页)
Understanding the evolution of groundwater storage and its drivers is essential for groundwater conservation and sustainable management in arid regions. However, a comprehensive assessment of long-term groundwater storage changes in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), especially before and after the artificial water diversion scheme, remains lacking. Here, we developed a downscaling framework to produce a 1 km groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) dataset spanning the past three decades. A random forest model and a modified interactive geographical and temporal weighted regression (mIGTWR) model were then used to characterize spatiotemporal evolution patterns and identify the driving mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) groundwater level anomalies from monitoring wells were reasonably consistent with the reconstructed GWSA, with a maximum Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.746; (2) groundwater storage in the HRB declined significantly during 1990-2019, at rates of -0.20 cm/yr, -0.21 cm/yr, and -0.25 cm/yr for the entire basin, the midstream, and the downstream, respectively; (3) nighttime light intensity (NTL) was identified as the dominant temporal driver of GWSA variations; and (4) spatially, the interactions TEM fl NTL (temperature x NTL), PET fl NTL (potential evapotranspiration x NTL), NTL fl NPP (NTL x net primary productivity), together with NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), were the key explanatory factors of GWSA change. These results highlight the coupled human-climate impacts on groundwater dynamics and provide critical implications for adaptive basin management and sustainable groundwater use in arid regions.