Jones, Benjamin A. ， Wang, Jingjing ， Fleck, John
2026-05-01 JOURNAL OF THE ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMISTS 2026 13(卷), 2(期), (389-424页)
Globally, many inland lakes in arid regions are shrinking due to reduced water runoff from irrigated agriculture. As inland lakes contract, playa dust emissions create air quality problems with associated negative human health effects. Yet, policy often considers lake shrinkage and health problems separate from water scarcity and agricultural production. This leads to inefficient outcomes. To address this, an original dynamic model is developed to study water transfer trade-offs between an agricultural sector and an inland lake. The model is applied to the Colorado River's Imperial Irrigation District (IID) and the Salton Sea, the largest inland lake in California. Results indicate that direct water leasing is capable of generating economic benefits in excess of lost agricultural profit. In particular, maintaining historical or lower Salton Sea inflows would result in excess regional health damages, and generating sea inflows above historical levels through water leasing is economically supported on a health benefits basis.