Lodging risk is closely related to yield potential, especially in semi-arid agricultural ecosystems, where achieving sustainable development and increasing food production without increasing lodging risk is a key challenge. However, research on how different tillage practices affect maize lodging risk and yield potential remains limited. This study, based on a long-term field experiment established in 2004 in the Loess Plateau of China, investigates the effects of conventional tillage (CT), no-tillage (NT), no-tillage with straw mulching (NTS), and no-tillage with straw mulching in alternating wide and narrow rows (NTSR) on soil physical properties, agronomic traits, lodging, and yield from 2022 to 2024. The aim is to identify key factors affecting maize lodging and yield. The results indicate that compared to CT, NT, NTS, and NTSR significantly increased soil water. NTS and NTSR significantly improved the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) in the 0-40 cm soil layer. In the same soil layer, NT significantly increased soil bulk density (BD) and soil compaction (SC), while reducing Ks. During the key growth stages of maize, the canopy height, leaf area index (LAI), above-ground biomass (AGB), and root growth under NTS and NTSR were all significantly greater than under CT (P < 0.05). However, the root morphology at the 0-100 cm depth under NT was significantly lower than that under CT (P < 0.05). Additionally, NTS and NTSR significantly reduced the center of gravity (CG), ear height coefficient (EHC), and internode length (LTI), while increasing the root-shoot ratio (RSR), third internode diameter (SDTI), internode breaking strength (IBS), bending strength (BS), and stem lodging resistance index (SLRI) (P < 0.05), which effectively reduced lodging rates. Random forest analysis indicated that soil water, IBS, BS, and LAI are the key factors affecting lodging. Compared to CT, NTS and NTSR significantly increased grain yield (by 16.8 % and 11.1 %, respectively) and 100-grain weight (by 6.8% and 4.5 %, respectively). Overall, NTS and NTSR improved soil water, soil physical properties, and the third internode traits of maize, achieving higher maize grain yield and lodging resistance. These findings provide valuable theoretical support for the sustainable development of rainfed agricultural areas similar to the Loess Plateau.