Early twenty-first century analysis of changes in vegetation health and carbon storage in Iran: quantifying the impacts of climate variability and human activities

Understanding how climate variations affect vegetation is essential for assessing ecosystem assessment and sustainable land management. This study examined spatiotemporal changes in vegetation drought and productivity across Iran over the period 2001-2020 and assessed the relative contribution of climate variations and human activities to the observed vegetation dynamics. The results revealed that Vegetation Health Index (VHI) had its highest mean value in SH/SA regions at 45.60 +/- 9.41% and Net Primary Production (NPP) had its maximum value at 0.14 +/- 0.09 kg*C/m(2) across humid regions, although the NPP in this climate zone is significantly degrading. Short-term droughts (3- and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) significantly influenced VHI in 75.86% the total area, and NPP in 82.28%. Furthermore, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) had a greater impact on VHI than Temperature Condition Index (TCI), covering 60.05% of the entire area, whereas in only 10.24% of the region, the combined impact of VCI and TCI were equal. Both VHI (R = 0.66) and NPP (R = 0.68) demonstrated a stronger correlation with multitemporal SPEI in hyper-arid regions compared to other climate zones. The partial correlation of VHI-precipitation and NPP-precipitation was statistically significant in 74.41% and 79.87% of the total area, respectively (p < 0.05). The conclusion showed that human activities had generally a stronger impact on VHI and NPP than climate variations. The mean relative role of climate variations on VHI and NPP changes was 33.79% and 66.21%, respectively, while human activities contributed 51.49% to VHI and 48.51% to NPP. The findings provide valuable insights for evaluating vegetation condition, crucial for assessing food security.(c) 2026 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.