Processes and driving mechanisms of drought propagation in Central Asia: A coupled perspective of meteorological, surface water, agricultural, and groundwater drought

Feng, Sen , Ma, Long , Kong, Lingxin , Zhang, Jingjing , Abuduwaili, Jilili , Issanova, Gulnura

2026-06-01 JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 2026   65(卷), null(期), (null页)

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  • Study region: Central Asia Study focus: A comprehensive framework was used to in this study investigate the propagation processes and driving mechanisms of meteorological drought (MD), surface water drought (SD), agricultural drought (AD), and groundwater drought (GD) in Central Asia during 2003-2023. Run theory was leveraged to detect drought events, while the center of gravity model was employed to analyze their migration characteristics at different scales. Furthermore, maximal correlation analysis and wavelet analyses were utilized to quantify propagation processes. The Geodetector and XGBoost-SHAP methods were integrated to identify key drivers. New hydrological insights for the region: In recent years, MD, AD, and GD have intensified, while SD has slightly eased. Drought centers have been concentrated in the heart of Central Asia. The propagation time from MD to SD has been relatively short (1.43 months), followed by AD (3.32 months), while propagation to GD was notably longer (14.91-18.63 months). The propagation of MD to SD and AD was the most pronounced in arid regions, which are regional characteristics regulated by mountain precipitation and snowmelt. Moreover, temperature, elevation, and precipitation were the main drivers of propagation from MD to SD, MD to AD, and from SD to GD.