The widespread adoption of drip irrigation has profoundly transformed agricultural practices and oasis development in arid regions. However, amid the rapid expansion of this technology, the coupling coordination processes of the oasis agricultural water resources-environment-economy (WEE) system and the key factors influencing them remain insufficiently explored. Using the oases of Xinjiang as a case study, this research examines the period of rapid technological implementation from 2003 to 2019, analyzing changes in key indicators such as the drip-irrigated area and oasis extent. A comprehensive WEE evaluation framework comprising three subsystems was developed. The integrated development level of the system was assessed using 35 indicators reflecting key characteristics of oasis agricultural development, and the coupling coordination relationships among the subsystems were quantified using a coupled coordination degree model. Furthermore, a random forest model identified the system's primary drivers and constraints. The findings reveal that: (1) All measured variables increased substantially. The drip-irrigated area and oasis extent increased by 936.42 % and 12.67 %, respectively. (2) The comprehensive development index (CDI) of the WEE system and its subsystems exhibited an overall upward trend. (3) The coupling coordination degree (CCD) improved from 0.524 to 0.816, although it did not reach a state of optimal coordination. (4) Key drivers for WEE system advancement were water use per 10,000 yuan of agricultural value added, total agricultural machinery power, the labor force percentage in the primary sector, drip irrigation penetration, and the extent of saline-alkali wasteland. The main constraints included the water production coefficient, agricultural plastic film use per unit area, the growth rate of total agricultural output, fertilizer application rate, and the ratio of ecological water usage. (5) We recommend enhancing the resilience of the WEE system through improved water resource management, mitigation of agricultural pollution, promotion of agricultural industrial transformation, and optimization of ecological governance strategies. From a WEE synergy perspective, this study quantified the integrated impacts of drip irrigation expansion. The findings offer insights to support sustainable agricultural development in Xinjiang and other oasis regions worldwide facing water-resource constraints.