Introducing Partial Correlation Networks to Reveal the Interrelationships Between Ecosystem Services and Social-Ecological Factors: A Case Study of the Shiyang River Basin

Feng, Shengxia , Pan, Jinghu

2026-01-01 ECOHYDROLOGY 2026   19(卷), 1(期), (null页)

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Faced with the dual pressures of global climate change and the intensification of human activity, sophisticated social-ecological systems (SES) are generating unprecedented challenges for sustainable development. Nevertheless, current research primarily emphasizes the dynamic variations of ecosystem services (ESs), with a specific focus on the dynamics of their supply, demand and flow, but with insufficient exploration of the complex mutual feedback mechanism between ecosystems and social systems. Network approaches have significant potential in the research of ESs, but their practical applications still require further exploration. This study selected the Shiyang River Basin (SRB) as a representative case and employs ESs as a bridging framework by introducing partial correlation networks, aiming to analyse how ESs are intricately linked with social-ecological factors (SEF). Results indicated that from 2010 to 2020, within the SRB, ESs demonstrated distinct spatial heterogeneity. Through network analysis, this study reveals the complex interrelationships between SEF and ESs in the SRB, identifying critical nodes and connecting pathways in the network. Among them, the importance and influence of precipitation in the network have gradually become prominent, with its node strength increasing from 0.92 in 2010 to 1.20 in 2020, becoming a key element driving the evolution of the network structure. Population density consistently served as a pivotal social factor throughout the study period, exacerbating the demand for multiple ESs. The persistent influence of human activities poses potential risks to SES. Additionally, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method eliminates over 50% of false connections, significantly enhancing the reliability of results. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that achieving sustainable development requires not only enhanced management of key elements but also greater attention to the relationships between SEF and multiple ESs, thereby establishing a systematic governance framework. This study not only provides a fresh angle to understand the complex interplay between ESs and SEF but also offers scientific foundations and practical guidance for ecological management in arid inland river basins.