2026-06-01 AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 2026 330(卷), null(期), (null页)
Pakistan's arid environment and agriculture are dependent on the Indus Basin, which faces rising irrigation pressure under declining per-capita water availability. In the Jhelum-Chenab command, crop water needs exceed canal and groundwater supplies, and operations lack a calibrated command-scale planning basis. The WEAP model was used for the estimation of crop water and irrigation requirements and assessment of the various optimization scenarios. In this research, hydrodynamic and agricultural data have been used, including ten daily river flow, canal flow, crop, and groundwater flow data from 2021 to 2023. The calibration and validation of the model were achieved by the comparison of observed and simulated yields of wheat, sugarcane, and cotton crops, and the model achieved high skill (R2 0.96-0.99; NSE 0.82-0.99). As per the results of the baseline scenario, the annual crop water requirements of the JC zone are 81.16 BCM, and the average annual effective precipitation is 14.90 BCM. Baseline simulations also indicate a large, uneven deficit; about two-thirds of irrigation demand remains unmet (74 BCM), concentrated in the Upper and LCC. Among the tested optimization options, improving on-farm irrigation efficiency gives the largest modelled irrigation shortfall reduction (20%) with concurrent gains in aggregate crop value, whereas seepage control and modest canal capacity increases provide smaller, additive benefits. Cropping adjustments raise market value without reduction in irrigation shortfall; changes in WEAP allocation priority ranks (Supply/Demand Priorities) yields no substantial change in irrigation shortfall and market value; and a combined package (increase in irrigation application efficiency, reduction in leakage in canals, moderate increase in canal capacity, increased ground water pumpage and limited cropping pattern shifts) performs best but still does not eliminate the irrigation deficit. Implementation should prioritize phased high-efficiency irrigation, a change in cropping pattern, and targeted leakage control with managed groundwater. The future works should disaggregate the model beyond the primary canal command scale to include secondary (branch/distributary) and tertiary (minor/water courses) networks, and should assess the scenario of climate change on the agricultural water management of JCCIS.