Grain aeration is a pest management tactic whose efficacy is more strongly affected by climate and environmental conditions than insecticides. We evaluated whether the already widespread use of grain aeration is feasible in the Middle East in silico given the arid and hot weather conditions prevalent in the region. Historical weather data from 2004 to 2023 was obtained for 77 sites in 13 countries in the Middle East, and Sitophilus oryzae populations were predicted for a subset of 10 locations spanning the range of climates in the region. We investigated the potential efficacy of aeration triggered at 15, 18, or 21 degrees C (compared to unaerated) in silico starting in one of five months from July to November. There was little accumulation of hours below 15 degrees C, a key developmental threshold, in most of the countries prior to November. Modelled S. oryzae populations were highest in hot desert and warm Mediterranean climates. Aeration was predicted to not suppress populations in the hot desert climate, especially in Egypt, but aeration is predicted to suppress population increase in the relatively milder Mediterranean climates. The strength and direction of the correlation (eg strongly positive) between predicted S. oryzae abundance and grain temperature or hours below threshold indicates effective aeration. Thus, when grain is aerated in locations with climate close to the upper developmental threshold of S. oryzae, it will not be effective. Our study illustrates grain aeration is predicted to be effective in some locations of the Middle East, with climatic features of the biome determining efficacy.