Precipitation or temperature? Nonlinear responses of particulate matter and ozone to meteorological extremes in an arid climate

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  • Northern Xinjiang, an arid inland area in Northwest China, is highly vulnerable to air pollution under intensifying climate extremes, yet the relative roles of temperature and precipitation extremes remain insufficiently understood. Using multi-source datasets for 2000-2023, including China High Air Pollutants (CHAP) particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), particulate matter 10 (PM10), and ozone (O3) products and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) extreme climate indices derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5)-Land, together with trend detection, change-point analysis, pixel-wise Pearson correlation, and random forest (RF) modeling, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of major air pollutants and their responses to meteorological extremes in northern Xinjiang. PM2.5 and PM10 generally declined from 2000 to 2023, whereas O3 increased, indicating a shift from particulate-dominated pollution toward stronger photochemical pollution. Interannually, PM2.5 showed a rise-decline pattern, PM10 exhibited a rise-decline-rebound pattern, and O3 increased markedly after 2015. Clear seasonal contrasts were observed, with PM2.5 peaking in winter, PM10 in spring, and O3 in summer. During the same period, northern Xinjiang exhibited a pronounced warming-drying tendency, characterized by increasing heat-related indices, decreasing cold-related indices, reduced precipitation totals and heavy-rainfall frequency, and increasing consecutive dry days. Pollutant-climate relationships showed strong spatial heterogeneity and pollutant-specific contrasts across the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi corridor, the Ili River Valley, and the Junggar Basin. PM PM2.5 responses to precipitation shifted from predominantly positive to negative, PM10 showed mainly negative associations with precipitation extremes, and O3 responses varied by subregion. Temperature-related extremes generally explained more pollutant variability than precipitation-related extremes, with PM PM2.5 showing the highest sensitivity. These findings highlight the coupled influences of warming, drying, emissions, and terrain-controlled transport on air quality and support region-specific, multi-pollutant strategies for coordinated climate adaptation and air pollution control in northern Xinjiang.