Highlights What are the main findings? The total area of these nine grassland types showed a declining trend from 2041 to 2100. Among them, the areas of Alpine Meadow (AM), Alpine Steppe (AS), Temperate Steppe (TS), and Temperate Desert (TD) experienced the most significant decrease. Grassland types in China are defined by precipitation, humidity, and community composition. This study showed that temperature and environmental variables play a crucial role and significantly contribute to the predicted distribution of grassland types. What are the implications of the main findings? The decline in grassland areas in high-altitude mountainous regions, such as AM, AS, and TS, indicates that climate change has a significant impact on grasslands in the mid-to high-altitude areas of Xinjiang. The existing classification system for grassland types in China should take more fac-tors into account, such as temperature and other relevant parameters.Highlights What are the main findings? The total area of these nine grassland types showed a declining trend from 2041 to 2100. Among them, the areas of Alpine Meadow (AM), Alpine Steppe (AS), Temperate Steppe (TS), and Temperate Desert (TD) experienced the most significant decrease. Grassland types in China are defined by precipitation, humidity, and community composition. This study showed that temperature and environmental variables play a crucial role and significantly contribute to the predicted distribution of grassland types. What are the implications of the main findings? The decline in grassland areas in high-altitude mountainous regions, such as AM, AS, and TS, indicates that climate change has a significant impact on grasslands in the mid-to high-altitude areas of Xinjiang. The existing classification system for grassland types in China should take more fac-tors into account, such as temperature and other relevant parameters.Abstract Examining the long-term spatiotemporal distribution of grassland types and their transitions is crucial for better understanding regional and global changes. Most research in this field has examined the spatial distribution, temporal dynamics of grasslands, and their causes as a unified entity. This study predicted the distribution of nine major grassland types in Xinjiang under three climate change scenarios from 2041 to 2100 based on 1980s grassland maps, field data in 2023, and 28 factors. The total area of the nine grassland types showed a decreasing trend from 2041 to 2100. The lowland meadow (LM), temperate meadow steppe (TMS), temperate steppe desert (TSD), temperate desert steppe (TDS), and mountain meadow (MM) expanded, while significant declines occurred in alpine meadow (AM), alpine steppe (AS), temperate desert (TD), and temperate steppe (TS). Among cumulative contribution rate of the 28 factors examined in this study, NDVI, vegetation type, slope, elevation, soil_symbol, soil_ph, Bio1, Bio5, Bio8, Bio9, Bio10, Bio12, Bio13, Bio15, and Bio18 played important roles in most grassland types. LM, TD, and AS grassland were found to be more sensitive to E (environment), while AM, TDS, and TSD were more influenced by T (temperature). The distributions of MM and TMS are significantly influenced by the combined effects of all three categories of factors. For TS, the impacts of both temperature and environmental factors are substantial. These findings provided a robust foundation for conservation planning and the sustainable management of grassland ecosystems in temperate and alpine regions.