Spatiotemporal reorganization of coastal wetlands along the Pakistan coast under climatic variability and human modification (2019-2024)

Ali, Muhammad Asgher , Laghari, Yaseen , Niu, Zhenguo , Li, Qingyu

2026-05-01 ECONOMICS LETTERS 2026   264(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Coastal wetlands are dynamic components of estuarine and nearshore systems that respond to both climatic variability and human modification. Understanding how different wetland types reorganize within coastal systems is essential for interpreting recent environmental change. This study examines spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal wetlands along the Pakistan coast from 2019 to 2024 using multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery, machinelearning-based classification, and class-to-class transition analysis. The results reveal pronounced structural reorganization among wetland types. Mangrove swamps and lagoons exhibited relative persistence and expansion (13.5% and 29.4%, respectively), whereas coastal marshes showed high instability and net decline (16%, -248 km2), and saltpans expanded rapidly after 2020 with limited reversibility. Transition analysis indicates that urban expansion and agricultural land use strongly influenced wetland conversion pathways, frequently outweighing the effects of climatic variability. These findings demonstrate that recent coastal wetland changes along the Pakistan coast are characterized by redistribution among wetland types result from interacting natural and anthropogenic processes, yielding structural reorganization rather than uniform system recovery. The study underscores the value of satellite-based assessments for interpreting coastal system dynamics and provides system-level insight into how interacting natural and anthropogenic drivers reorganize coastal wetlands in arid and semi-arid deltaic environments, informing class-specific approaches in arid/semi-arid zones.