Land use and land cover change have reduced meteorological-hydrological compound drought on a global scale

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  • Drought poses increasing threats to natural ecosystems and human societies. While historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) has generally been linked to increased drought duration and severity, its specific influence on compound droughts remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the global impact of LULCC on meteorological-hydrological compound droughts (MHCDs) from 1850 to 2014, utilizing the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) experiments, run theory, and ridge regression. Our findings reveal that, contrary to general trends for single droughts, historical LULCC has mitigated MHCDs globally, leading to overall reductions in their duration by an average of 0.11 months and severity by 0.12 units. However, this generalized trend masks complex regional variations and differing impacts on individual drought types: LULCC tended to intensify meteorological droughts while simultaneously reducing hydrological droughts. Additionally, MHCDs in arid zones display the most significant sensitivities to LULCC. Ridge regression analysis further elucidates the relative contributions of urban areas, forests, croplands, and grazing lands. Grazing lands and croplands exert dominant yet spatially heterogeneous influences, with effects on MHCDs opposing one another across different continents, underscoring the critical role of regional context in LULCC-drought interactions. These results highlight the multifaceted influence of human land management on drought dynamics and provide crucial insights for developing regionally tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies.