Strengthening the carbon sequestration function of agriculture and reducing carbon emissions during production are critical for enhancing the carbon neutrality capacity of agricultural systems. This study focuses on Lanzhou City in the arid northwest region of China, and uses the emission factor method to analyze carbon emissions and crop carbon sequestration within the local agricultural production system (2000-2023). The results indicate that plastic film and fertilizers, as agricultural production inputs, contribute substantially to the total carbon emissions of the planting industry, while the annual average carbon emissions from sheep account for approximately half of the total annual carbon emissions from animal husbandry. The annual average carbon sequestration of crops is 366,057 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. The ratio of crop carbon sequestration to the total carbon emissions from planting and animal husbandry is approximately 2.1:1. Although the carbon sequestration of crops has increased over time, its average annual growth rate remains lower than that of carbon emissions from planting and animal husbandry, resulting in an Agricultural Sustainable Development Index of 54%. Therefore, further efforts are needed to control carbon emissions and increase the carbon sequestration capacity of crops to improve the sustainability of agriculture development in the region. Finally, the Monte Carlo algorithm is used to simulate and predict future carbon emissions from animal husbandry within the agricultural production system, thereby obtaining the relative trends in total carbon emissions from pigs, cows, and sheep over a given period. Limiting the scale and growth rate of major livestock populations can help limit the increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry.