Vegetation cover changes driven by ecological restoration projects strongly influence the spatiotemporal patterns of ecosystem functions. This study aims to clarify the response of soil conservation (SC) to vegetation dynamics and restoration potential on the Loess Plateau. Future potential of vegetation restoration was projected using the sliding-window based similar habitat potential model. Through integration of the InVEST model with multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SC driving mechanisms was elucidated and the net contribution of vegetation change to SC was quantified through scenario analysis. The results show a significant increase in mean annual fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 0.50 in 2000 to 0.62 in 2020, with 86.96% of the study area experiencing greening. Future FVC is projected to reach 0.73 under the current climate conditions. Restoration potential is highly heterogeneous across the Loess Plateau, with 67.11% of the area approaching its restoration limit and only 6.86% of the region (primarily in the northwestern part of the Loess Plateau) maintaining high restoration potential. Over the same period, total annual SC increased by 42.91%. MGWR results indicate that topographic (LS) and rainfall erosivity (R) factors were the dominant and stable drivers controlling the pattern of SC. In contrast, the influence of vegetation (FVC) factor strengthened significantly from 2000 to 2020, both in spatial extent and intensity, particularly in core ecological project areas, highlighting its growing role in regulating SC. Scenario-based quantification demonstrated that vegetation restoration contributed SC gains of 1.20 x 109 t (2000-2010), 0.93 x 109 t (2010-2020), and 0.87 x 109 (potential vegetation condition), indicating a clear trend of diminishing marginal benefits. The findings could provide scientific support for future optimization of regional ecosystem management and development of relevant soil conservation strategies.