2026-10-01 AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 2026 238(卷), null(期), (null页)
CONTEXT: Climate change is transforming agricultural production at an unprecedented pace and poses a substantial threat to food security. Although many adaptation measures have been proposed, the causal effects of climate-adaptation couplings to potato yield remain poorly understood. In the climate-sensitive potato production region of Loess Plateau in China, clarifying this coupling process is critical for developing effective adaptive production strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the impacts of different adaptation packages on potato yield under future non-stationary climate conditions on the Loess Plateau of China, and to clarify the role of climate-adaptation coupling in yield formation using causal inference. METHODS: We integrated multi-model simulations, interpretable machine learning, and a multi-arm causal forest model to systematically assess the impacts of 54 adaptation combinations on future potato yield under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Standardized mixed-effects models were used to decompose the contributions of climatic factors, adaptation measures, and their coupling effects to yield variation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that the combination of early planting, rainfed management, increased nitrogen application, and plastic film mulching was the highest-yielding strategy, increasing projected yields by 19.50-20.94% in future. However, adaptation benefits decline over time and with higher emission intensity, especially during 2071-2100 under SSP585. Causal analysis within the simulated framework shows that the treatment effects of most adaptation combinations are diminished by climate-adaptation coupling. Meanwhile, heat stress progressively offsets the positive influences of water and CO2 fertilization. Using standardized mixed-effects models, we quantify that climate-adaptation coupling explains 37.63-42.42% of yield variation, significantly higher than the effect of single climatic or adaptation factors. The optimal adaptation strengthens positive couplings such as nitrogen-precipitation and mulching-precipitation, improving water-nutrient synergy under rainfed conditions while avoiding the compounded hot-wet stress that can arise from irrigation combined with mulching under high temperatures. Spatially, the arid, cool western plateau benefits most from couplings, although that advantage is reduced under SSP585. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates that sustaining future potato production requires dynamic, regionally differentiated adaptation pathways that prioritize heat stress mitigation and actively reinforce positive climate-adaptation couplings. These findings provide a mechanistic basis for designing climate-smart potato cropping systems.