Gomleksiz, Turkan Zengin , Ozdemir, Emrah Tuncay
2026-04-25 PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 2026 null(卷), null(期), (null页)
Drought is an increasing challenge in semi-arid border regions where climatic stress intersects with demographic pressure. Kilis Province, located along the southern border of T & uuml;rkiye, is particularly vulnerable because declining water availability coincides with rising demand associated with migration-driven population growth. This study presents a 67-year drought assessment for Kilis using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales, together with a Landsat-based monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for 2000-2025 as a complementary indicator of vegetation response. Drought characteristics were compared between two consecutive sub-periods, 1959-1991 and 1992-2025, and long-term climatic trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed a significant decrease in annual precipitation and a significant increase in annual mean temperature. Both SPI and SPEI exhibited statistically significant negative trends across all timescales, with the strongest drying signal at the 12-month scale. The inter-period comparison further indicated intensification of long-term drought conditions during the recent period. Correlations between NDVI anomalies and drought indices were weak and statistically non-significant, suggesting that NDVI should be interpreted as a complementary vegetation-response indicator rather than a direct validation tool for meteorological drought indices. Overall, the findings reveal progressive drought intensification in Kilis and provide evidence relevant to drought preparedness and water-resource planning.