Highlights What are the main findings? Multi-perspective contribution analysis reveals that while the R-factor dominates the largest area (46.85%) in relative terms, the C-factor contributes most significantly to actual erosion reduction, with negative contributions across 98.68% of the basin. PLS-SEM reveals distinct dominant controls across scales: the R-factor exerts the strongest direct effect on soil erosion at the temporal scale, while the LS-factor dominates at the spatial scale. What are the implications of the main findings? The four management zones (Successfully treated, Potential rebound risk, Emergency treatment, and Monitoring priority areas) provide spatially explicit guidance for optimizing soil and water conservation investments in ecologically fragile regions. The combined use of relative and absolute contribution analysis offers a more comprehensive framework for disentangling complex driver-effect relationships in long-term soil erosion studies.Highlights What are the main findings? Multi-perspective contribution analysis reveals that while the R-factor dominates the largest area (46.85%) in relative terms, the C-factor contributes most significantly to actual erosion reduction, with negative contributions across 98.68% of the basin. PLS-SEM reveals distinct dominant controls across scales: the R-factor exerts the strongest direct effect on soil erosion at the temporal scale, while the LS-factor dominates at the spatial scale. What are the implications of the main findings? The four management zones (Successfully treated, Potential rebound risk, Emergency treatment, and Monitoring priority areas) provide spatially explicit guidance for optimizing soil and water conservation investments in ecologically fragile regions. The combined use of relative and absolute contribution analysis offers a more comprehensive framework for disentangling complex driver-effect relationships in long-term soil erosion studies.Abstract Soil erosion is a serious problem threatening regional ecological security, particularly in the Loess Plateau of China. This study focuses on the Wuding River Basin on the Loess Plateau. Based on multi-source data from 2001 to 2024, the RUSLE model was used to estimate the soil erosion modulus. We used comprehensive methods, such as trend analysis, multiple regression, scenario simulation, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), hot spot analysis, and Hurst exponent, to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of soil erosion, the contributions of driving factors, and the sustainability of trends. The results showed that over the 24-year period, the soil erosion modulus in the basin generally showed a decreasing trend, suggesting an improvement in soil erosion conditions. The area of mild and above erosion grades continued to shrink. Among the RUSLE factors, the vegetation cover factor (C) showed a significant downward trend (R2 = 0.7721), with the decreasing area accounting for 95.8%; the rainfall erosivity factor (R) showed a slight upward trend, with the increasing area accounting for 92.7%; and the erosion control practice factor (P) remained stable in most areas (96.8%). Relative contribution analysis indicated that the R-factor dominated the largest area (46.85%), while absolute contribution analysis showed that the C-factor contributed most significantly to erosion reduction. PLS-SEM demonstrated that the influence pathways of natural factors and human activities on soil erosion differed significantly across spatial and temporal scales. On the temporal scale, the R-factor had the strongest direct positive effect on erosion; on the spatial scale, the topography factor (LS) had the strongest positive effect on erosion. Furthermore, we found that the disturbance of vegetation by human activities is being weakened with the continuous implementation of soil and water conservation projects. The cold and hot spots of erosion trends were concentrated in the southeastern part of the basin. Based on trend sustainability, the basin was divided into successfully treated areas (57.6%), potential rebound risk areas (29.4%), emergency treatment areas (11.2%), and monitoring priority areas (1.8%). Overall, this study advances the understanding of soil erosion evolution under long-term ecological restoration and provides a scientific basis for optimizing sustainable soil and water conservation management in the Wuding River Basin.