Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and attribution of streamflow in the Huangshui River Basin

Tan, Xuejin , Mo, Haoyuan , Cao, Mingzhu , Chen, Guoxin , Fu, Jianyu , Liu, Bingjun

2026-04-01 JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2026   17(卷), 4(期), (947-964页)

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Comparative charts showing the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to streamflow changes, indicating that human activities are the dominant factor at all stations.Comprehending the effects of climate change (CC) and anthropogenic activities on streamflow is crucial for water resource management. This study employed ordinal cluster analysis and the Pettitt test to determine the abrupt change year in the streamflow series in the Huangshui River Basin (HSRB) during 1992-2017. And we quantitatively attributed the relative impacts of CC and anthropogenic activities to variations in streamflow by utilizing the Budyko framework and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results indicated a general increasing trend in streamflow throughout the HSRB, with an abrupt change detected in 2004. Streamflow changes were most sensitive to precipitation, followed by underlying surface parameters and potential evapotranspiration. Changes in the underlying surface were identified as the primary factor affecting streamflow variation, contributing 81.6, 94.3, and 235.0% to streamflow changes at the Heilin, Xinachuan, and Minhe stations, respectively. CC was the secondary factor, contributing 18.44, 5.74, and -134.99% to streamflow changes at these respective stations. The Budyko framework performed better than the SWAT model in attributing the changes in streamflow in the HSRB. These findings are anticipated to yield significant insights for the optimization and water resources management in the HSRB.HIGHLIGHTSHuman activities were the main factor contributing to the increase in streamflow in the Huangshui River Basin. Streamflow was most sensitive to precipitation, with underlying surface change as the dominant driver across the Huangshui River Basin. The Budyko framework outperformed the SWAT model in attributing streamflow variations to climate change and human activities.