This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics based on 576 monthly observations from multiple stations in the Wadi Isser basin. Descriptive analyses revealed that near-normal conditions dominate the climatic profile, averaging 18-21 stations per month, although sporadic episodes of severe drought and intense wetness highlight the system's vulnerability to extreme anomalies. Cluster analysis identified three distinct drought regimes: (1) a stable, near-normal state with minimal anomalies; (2) wet-dominated months characterized by widespread rainfall and frequent extreme wet events; and (3) drought-dominated periods marked by severe and extensive water scarcity. Time-series decomposition confirmed that near-normal conditions are structurally persistent, lacking strong seasonality or long-term shifts, yet prone to abrupt short-term disruptions triggered by irregular climatic shocks. Complementing these insights, a data-driven SIR modeling framework revealed self-limiting dynamics: extreme events dissipate rapidly; near-normal states remain resilient but fragile when overly dominant; and moderate conditions act as transitional phases shaped by interactions between normal and extreme states. Collectively, these findings underscore a climate system that is predominantly stable yet punctuated by rare, intense, and spatially widespread drought or wet episodes. The results enhance understanding of drought variability and offer a robust analytical framework for anticipating hydro-climatic extremes in semi-arid Mediterranean basins. [GRAPHICS]