Process-based conservation assessments of desert plants: integrating spatial, demographic, and environmental metrics in the Thar Desert of India

Mathur, Manish , Mathur, Preet

2026-09-01 JOURNAL FOR NATURE CONSERVATION 2026   93(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Arid and semi-arid ecosystems are among the world's most fragile biomes, where woody plants underpin ecological stability yet face increasing pressures from habitat fragmentation, overexploitation, and climate change. Conventional IUCN Criterion B assessments based on Extent of Occurrence (EOO) and Area of Occupancy (AOO) provide standardized spatial thresholds but do not explicitly incorporate demographic or structural processes influencing persistence. This study develops a Conservation Priority Index (CPI), a process-informed prioritization framework that integrates carrying capacity (K), metapopulation connectivity (lambda), and fragmentation within a diagnostic structure complementary to IUCN Criterion B. Using six ecologically significant Thar Desert species (Acacia jacquemontii, Anogeissus sericea var. nummularia, Calligonum polygonoides, Commiphora wightii, Haloxylon salicornicum, and Tecomella undulata), we combined geospatial analyses with Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) to evaluate structural relationships among demographic and environmental parameters. Although all species exceeded EOO thresholds, their AOOs were <2,000 km(2), indicating spatial restriction under Criterion B. SEM results highlighted the structural interplay between patch configuration and demographic capacity, while CCA identified temperature, precipitation, and soil carbon as key dimensions of environmental alignment. CPI outcomes revealed marked variation in prioritization: T. undulata exhibited the highest concern (CPI = 0.92) due to restricted occupancy and edaphic specialization, whereas H. salicornicum showed lower relative vulnerability (CPI = 0.28) associated with strong spatial cohesion and environmental alignment. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that CPI rankings were robust to alternative weighting and spatial parameter configurations. CPI thus differentiates structural and demographic fragility among species with similar Red List classifications and serves as a complementary, scalable, and dynamically updatable (Delta CPI) framework for conservation prioritization and monitoring in data-limited arid systems.