Marwade, Anurag R. , Kulkarni, Sneha , Dhorde, Amit G. , Vyas, Swapnil S.
2026-06-11 JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 2026 135(卷), 3(期), (null页)
Madhya Maharashtra, situated in the rain shadow of the Western Ghats, experiences climatic variability ranging from semi-arid to tropical monsoon conditions. Its reliance on seasonal rainfall for agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Understanding spatiotemporal trends in these variables is crucial for effective climate impact assessment and regional adaptation planning. This study analyzes spatiotemporal trends in rainfall and temperature over the region from 1981 to 2023 using high-resolution IMD gridded daily data (0.25 degrees & times; 0.25 degrees for rainfall and 1 degrees & times; 1 degrees for temperature). The data were aggregated to monthly, seasonal, and annual scales and analyzed using ArcGIS 10.8. Descriptive statistics, rainy days (>= 2.5 mm), and consecutive rainy days were examined. Trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator revealed increasing rainfall trends in March and near-significant rises in July and September, with stable consecutive rainy days and an upward trend in rainy days. Spatially, rainfall increased in southern Nashik, western Ahmednagar, and northern Pune, while slight declines occurred in Solapur and southern Kolhapur. Maximum temperatures showed a rising trend in northern and eastern districts, while minimum temperatures increased notably in southern and western areas, particularly during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. These trends underscore the need for climate-resilient strategies in agriculture and water resource management.HighlightsRainfall (1981-2023) shows high variability with increasing March rainfall and indications of monsoon intensification in July and September.Spatial contrasts persist: higher rainfall over the Western Ghats and parts of Nashik and Pune, while drier districts in the east show declining tendencies.Significant warming trends in Tmax and Tmin, especially during Pre- and Post-Monsoon seasons, with pronounced winter nighttime warning.Rising temperatures and rainfall variability increase evapotranspiration, irrigation demand, and heat stress, requiring climate-resilient agricultural and water management strategies.