Dieback of mangroves in the Jaguaribe River Estuary, Northeastern Brazil and the associated anthropogenic drivers

De Lacerda, Luiz Drude , Da Silva, Erika R. , Ferreira, Alexander Cesar

2026 ANAIS DA ACADEMIA BRASILEIRA DE CIENCIAS 2026   98(卷), 1(期), (null页)

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Mangroves are threatened by direct (shrimp aquaculture, urbanization) and indirect (climate change) drivers, which act synergistically in coastal settings causing degradation and loss. In NE Brazil these drivers strengthened in recent decades. A 25-year series of remote sensing images of land use changes in the Jaguaribe River Estuary, with emphasis on mangroves, showed a mangrove dieback of 41% relative to the 2000 cover (803 ha). In this period mangrove area increased from 2000 to 2009, reaching 851 ha (+4.8 ha.yr(-1)). Thereafter loss rate was much higher (-37.2 ha.yr(-1)), reducing mangrove cover to 479 ha in 2023. Drivers of diebackwere the increase (161%) of shrimp farming area and urbanization (119%) since 2000. A positive correlation (p < 0.01) between urbanization and shrimp farming expansion, suggests that infrastructure supporting shrimp farms (roads, bridges and wind power fields) are a significant pressure. Direct conversion of mangroves into shrimp ponds was minor, but a time-delayed effect on mangrove health bordering aquaculture activities was observed. These drivers also caused a reduction of salt flats ('apicuns'). The impact of shrimp farming and its associated infrastructure on mangroves is overlooked, since no direct forest conversion is evident, rather a time-delayed continuous loss of ecosystem integrity occurs.