Blue-green spaces serve as the core carriers of urban ecosystems, and their conservation and optimization have emerged as pivotal issues in territorial spatial planning and ecological governance. Taking Guilin, a national innovation demonstration zone for China's Sustainable Development Agenda, as the study area, a deep learning-based DBDTAF-Net classification model is constructed using 2020 Sentinel-2 remote sensing imagery and AW3D30 Digital Surface Model (DSM) data. The model achieves a mean Intersection-over-Union (mIoU) of 86.05% on the test set and an IoU of 94.67% for rocky desertification areas. Based on the classification results, 21 derived indicators (including landscape patterns of BGSs) and six meteorological and topographic factors, alongside three core ecosystem service indicators-Aboveground Biomass (AGB), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and soil conservation-are extracted to characterize their spatial patterns. The XGBoost-SHAP framework is employed to quantify the driving effects and threshold responses of BGS patterns on ecosystem services. The results indicate that (1) BGSs in Guilin display a spatial pattern of "green-dominated, blue-supplemented, generally contiguous yet locally fragmented," and all three ecosystem services exhibit significant spatial clustering. (2) Landscape pattern factors of green spaces constitute the dominant influencing factors, with contribution rates ranging from 22.3% to 28.6%. Specifically, green space_COHESION demonstrates a stable linear positive effect. A green space ratio below 45% suppresses AGB, whereas exceeding 45% shifts to a positive effect and represents an efficient enhancement interval for NPP while exerting a continuously positive influence on soil conservation. A cultivated land proportion below 30% leads to a strongly increasing inhibitory effect on AGB and soil conservation, whereas its inhibition on NPP weakens beyond 20%. A construction land proportion exceeding 10% significantly suppresses NPP, and the inhibitory effect stabilizes above 20%. Green space patch density below 0.8 shows a pronounced negative effect, which diminishes above 0.8. Blue space factors exert relatively weak effects. (3) The ecosystem service supply capacity varies across functional zones in Guilin, with the ecological barrier zone performing the best, the modern agricultural zone performing moderately, and the six central urban districts of the Shanshui Metropolis Area exhibiting the lowest levels. This study provides a technical framework for high-precision extraction of urban BGSs and quantitative analysis of factors influencing ecosystem services, offers decision support for ecological conservation and restoration in Guilin, and furthermore proposes insights for the coordinated development of rational land resource utilization and ecosystem service enhancement in other karst cities.