Spatio-temporal assessment of ecological vulnerability for three districts of Cholistan Desert, Punjab, Pakistan (2000-2024)

Dryland ecosystems face a serious risk of desertification, exacerbated by climate change; however, few thorough assessments of ecological vulnerability consider both socioeconomic and biophysical factors, particularly in Pakistan. This research presents a spatiotemporal ecological vulnerability evaluation in the Cholistan Desert of Pakistan from 2000 to 2024. A comprehensive Ecological Vulnerability Index (EVI) was developed using 20 indicators representing the Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity dimensions. A hybrid AHP-Entropy weighting approach was developed by combining expert opinions with objective statistical analysis. Socioeconomic, meteorological, and remote-sensing data for three districts Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Rahimyar Khan at a spatial resolution of 250 meters were analyzed. The results demonstrate distinct geographical and temporal patterns: Bahawalnagar's vulnerability decreased by 12.9% as a result of effective poverty reduction initiatives, whereas Rahimyar Khan's vulnerability increased by 6.5%, mainly due to worsening soil salinity. Bahawalpur was at risk even though it remained relatively stable because soil degradation nearly undid the gains made in removing poverty. The two most significant leverage factors for lowering vulnerability, according to sensitivity analysis, were vegetation health (NDVI) and temperature. The findings demonstrate that ecological vulnerability is complex and impacted by socio-ecological interactions that are unique to a given place. The VSDAHP-Entropy framework successfully evaluated the vulnerability of drylands and suggested vegetation-based salinity control and climate-proofing measures. Overall, this approach promotes targeted, locally relevant policies that support SDG 15 (Life on Land), fostering climate change-resilient land management and combating desertification.