Middleton, Nick , Goudie, Andrew
2026-08-01 EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS 2026 279(卷), null(期), (null页)
This review assesses the state of our knowledge and understanding of how climate change may impact the desert dust cycle. Global warming will enhance evapotranspiration, with consequences for vegetation, soil moisture and snow cover. Increases in aridity in some drylands will affect lake levels, vegetation cover, wildfires and river flows. Dust emissions may increase as drought results in declining vegetation cover and soil moisture. Alternatively, emissions may decline because a decrease in rainfall equates to less transport of sediments to dust emission sources. Wind characteristics influence dust storm frequencies, as do several modes of ocean-atmosphere variability. Changes in climate will have impacts on vegetation and biocrusts which play an important role in controlling wind erosion. Dryland lake basins are key dust sources and these may change in extent in response to altered rainfall regimes. Wildfire incidence increases with climate change, exposing the ground surface to wind erosion. In cold environments, snow cover, which will be reduced under global warming, is a significant control of dust storm activity. Snow protects the ground surface from wind entrainment. Glacierised areas are sources of dust and these will be modified by warming and glacier retreat. However, our understanding of the net effect on dust-raising of combinations of drivers-climatic, geomorphological, ecological, anthropogenic-lacks clarity and is based on information that is limited geographically, with some regions more thoroughly studied than others. Climatic forcing of the dust cycle is characterised by high variability across multiple time and space scales. Understanding this variability is essential for creating effective, evidence-based strategies to manage the numerous dust-related risks facing society.