Multi-timescale variations and drivers of atmospheric dust activity in the Yellow River Jiziwan region over the past 70 years

Wang, Rongwu , Liu, Xiaodong , Ta, Wanquan , Sun, Hui , Peng, Yan

2026-12-01 ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 2026   342(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Atmospheric dust activity poses significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges in East Asia. This study investigates multi-timescale variations of spring dust and their drivers in the Jiziwan region (JZW) of the Yellow River basin and two major source areas-the Mongolian Gobi region (MGR) and the Taklimakan Desert region (TDR)-using station observations (1956-2025) and MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Results show that interannual spring dust fluctuations in JZW align significantly with those in MGR, while its long-term trend corresponds more closely with TDR. On interannual timescales, JZW dust variability is modulated by phase shifts in the preceding winter's Arctic Oscillation (AO), which persistently influence Siberian snow cover and, in turn, perturb mid-latitude tropospheric circulation and local surface conditions, thereby modulating dust activity. On multidecadal timescales, the observed long-term weakening trend in JZW spring dust activity is associated with declining Arctic sea ice concentration during the prior winter. Persistent sea ice anomalies alter the polar-midlatitude thermal gradient, driving large-scale circulation adjustments across Eurasia. These changes systematically affect the East Asian westerlies and near-surface wind speeds, ultimately reducing regional dust emissions. By distinguishing the drivers operating on different temporal scales, this study offers new insights into the mechanisms shaping East Asian dust activity under changing climate conditions.