2026-08-15 AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2026 387(卷), null(期), (null页)
African woody vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating tropical land carbon flux variability and is important for global climate mitigation. However, our knowledge of its long-term trajectories remains limited. Here, we combine microwave satellite observations from VODCA Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) and L-VOD products to analyze the long-term trends in African woody cover during 1988-2020, and employ a Random Forest model to uncover the main drivers of woody cover dynamics. The VOD-derived woody cover estimates were evaluated against both multiple satellite-based woody cover products and independent field observations (R2 = 0.60-0.83), indicating robust overall agreement. Based on this analysis, we estimate a reversal in the woody cover trend around 2010 over Africa in 40% of African woodland area, with a reduction in woody cover after 2010 offsetting approximately 32% of the gains observed before 2010. This reversal was particularly pronounced in southern Africa where woody cover trend shifted from a significant increases (1.6%center dot decade-1 (95%CI: 1.1%, 2.2%)) before 2010 to a significant decrease after 2010 (-1.4%center dot decade-1 (95%CI:-4.1%, 0.3%)). Land cover change is identified as the most influential factor in driving changes in woody cover, contributing 35.1% of the total importance, followed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD, 28.3%) and precipitation (9.2%). Earth system models from CMIP6 largely fail to capture both the temporal reversal point and spatial hotspots of woody cover trend reversal observed in our satellite-based analysis, indicating limited capability in reproducing recent changes in African woody vegetation. These findings provide observational evidence that, although woody plant encroachment and COQ fertilization driving increases in some dryland regions, these gains have been offset by significant regional-scale declines in woody cover that emerged around 2010 across parts of Africa. This spatial divergence challenges the previous consensus of a widespread and continuous increase in woody vegetation in this part of the world.