Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of carbon sinks across ecosystems in Northwest China

Chen, Xueye , Shi, Ying , Bie, Qiang , Mujib, Adeagbo

2026-05-01 JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 2026   18(卷), 5(期), (735-751页)

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  • Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is a key indicator for estimating carbon sink dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. Existing studies on carbon sink dynamics in Northwest China have uncertainties in quantifying spatiotemporal variations of NEP and their driving factors. This study estimated NEP across ecosystems in Northwest China during 2000-2020 using multi-model integration, and analyzed its spatiotemporal patterns and drivers. Results showed that the annual average NEP was 97.98 g C/(m2 center dot a), with higher values at eastern and western margins and lower values in central hinterland. Strong carbon sink areas included the Yili River Basin and northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, while low carbon sink areas concentrated in eastern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Eastern Xinjiang) and Alxa-Ejin Plateau. NEP trended upward from 79.22 g C/(m2 center dot a) in 2000 to 109.03 g C/(m2 center dot a) in 2020 with low variability and strong persistence, suggesting continuous growth. NEP significantly and positively correlated with near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), weakly with climate factors, and negatively with socio-economic density indicators. Topographically, NEP peaked at 2.0-2.4 km elevation, 15 degrees-25 degrees slopes, and north-facing aspects. Changes in ecosystem type significantly influenced NEP, with bare land conversion into grassland/cropland enhancing carbon sinks. Results of this study highlight the need for ecological restoration and rational land use to boost carbon sequestration in this ecologically sensitive