Analyzing the dominant drivers of the Food-Water-Land-Ecosystem (FWLE) nexus in the future is important for improving sustainable development in dryland ecosystems. However, the future trajectories of food-water-land-ecosystem interactions in typical drought-prone regions remain poorly understood. To address this gap, this study coupled the Gray Multi-Objective Programming with Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (GMOP-PLUS) model and applied spatial analysis methods (including longitudinal and zonal statistical analysis, trade-off synergy analysis, and redundancy analysis) to examine the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns of the FWLE nexus in Xinjiang under different development scenarios. Over the past two decades, water yield in Xinjiang's agricultural landscapes has declined by 57.4%, primarily due to land-use and land-cover changes. Under the 2030 sustainable development scenario, a custom optimization developed via the GMOP model that balances economic and ecological objectives, crop production and habitat quality are projected to increase by 47.9% and 55.1%, respectively. Moreover, redundancy analysis results indicate that the driving contribution of precipitation on the FWLE nexus is expected to reach 76.9% by 2030. These findings provide a clear delineation of priority spatial units for improvement within Xinjiang agro-ecosystem and offer a strategic pathway for balancing ecological conservation and economic development.