Global projections of aridity index for mid and long-term future based on CMIP6 scenarios

Crapart, Camille , Anquetin, Sandrine , Blanchet, Juliette , Diedhiou, Arona

2026-01-13 HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 2026   30(卷), 1(期), (163-181页)

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This study evaluates and projects global aridity index (AI) and dryland distribution using the FAO Aridity Index based on Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration. A multimodel ensemble of 13 CMIP6 models, with a horizontal resolution of 100 km, was selected for analysis. The ensemble was validated against WorldClim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets for the reference period (1970-1999), showing strong correlations in key variables and consistent geographic representation of drylands, with some regional discrepancies, notably in North-Eastern Brazil. Future projections of AI were generated for three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5) and two time frames (2030-2059 and 2070-2099). Results indicate that most regions will maintain their current climate classification but face decreasing AI values, signifying drier conditions. Under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5, significant drying is projected for the mid-term, with continued but slower changes by century's end, affecting regions such as North and Central America, the Mediterranean Basin, and areas adjacent to present-day deserts. In contrast, SSP 3-7.0 shows limited drying or localized wetting in the mid-term, followed by extensive drying in the long-term. Comprehensive maps and tables detailing dryland proportions and distributions are provided to support these findings.

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